How to do an SEO projection

Companies are increasingly requesting SEO projections.

It’s a reasonable request. SEO efforts often require significant resources and companies want to know what kind of return they can expect.

However, accurately predicting future organic growth is never straightforward. 

Countless variables can impact outcomes. Think of:

• Algorithm updates.
• Fluctuating click-through rates.
• SERP changes.
• The speed (or lack) of implementation.

As an SEO professional, how do you approach the challenge of making SEO projections when so much is uncertain?

This article describes a step-by-step process for creating SEO projections. It also explores two alternative methods that might help you sidestep difficult projection discussions altogether.

Making SEO projections: A step-by-step process

A robust SEO projection requires a methodical, data-driven approach. 

This method provides a detailed framework for forecasting organic search performance with greater precision and confidence.

1. Pull all relevant keywords a website ranks for, the search volume and current rank 

If you want the result to be as accurate as possible, remove any irrelevant keywords from this list so as not to overinflate the monthly search volume. 

Your final list should look something like this:

In our example, let’s say that the website in question ranks for 1,500 relevant keywords that add up to 57,320 monthly searches.

2. Gather estimated click-through rates by position

CTRs vary significantly depending on where a keyword ranks – Position 1 typically has a much higher CTR than Position 12. 

While this isn’t perfect, as CTRs can differ by industry and website, it’s far more accurate than applying a uniform CTR across all ranks. 

Depending on your source, your CTR list might look something like this:

Tip: I recommend getting CTRs for positions 1-20. Since CTRs are pretty much non-existent after Position 20, you can assume that any position changes that happen in Positions 21+ do not contribute any new visits.

3. Multiply the MSV by the CTR for the current position

Multiplying the monthly search volume by the CTR provides an estimate of the monthly traffic each keyword is currently generating for your website. These estimates serve as a baseline for measuring future increases. 

The result should look something like this:

Be sure to validate your numbers. Double-check your keyword data and make adjustments if they seem overly high or unrealistic. 

4. Estimate how much your SEO tactics will improve keyword rankings and calculate new visits

Projections rely on a key assumption. While no SEO can guarantee ranking improvements, the expectation is that higher rankings will lead to increased CTRs and more traffic. 

Set realistic ranking improvements, as shown below, and multiply the search volume by the corresponding new CTR.

A couple of other important points on the table above.

• You’ll notice in the above table that the “New Visits” column subtracts out the current visits. This makes sense, right? We want our projections to show the increase in visits against the current baseline, not the total number of visits.
• Since SEO doesn’t happen overnight, think about the timeframe you expect to see these increases. I like to use at least six months to a year as a timeframe but consider the difficulty of keyword targets, their competitive landscape and overall scope. This is yet another assumption that you will have to consider as part of these projections. 
• I use an Excel sheet with formulas and VLOOKUPs to automate this entire process, so consider making yourself a template for this exercise.

At the end of this step, you should have an idea of the number of new visits you can expect by improving the current rankings for these keywords. This will be the basis of the projection moving forward.

In this example, let’s say this comes out to 5,260 new monthly visits.

Tip: Make sure the number of new monthly visits seems reasonable. If your numbers say that you are going to 20x new visits in a year, then you may want to rework the numbers to be a little less aggressive.

5. Define metrics like average conversion rate and average conversion value

These metrics can be obtained from first-party analytics data or by asking the business for their internal figures. Often, businesses requesting a projection will provide these numbers upfront. 

Regardless, it’s essential to align on these metrics, as obtaining values like average order value from non-ecommerce businesses can sometimes be challenging.

It’s important to consider that conversion rates and values can vary across different sections of a site, such as blogs, service pages or the homepage. 

This variability is another assumption to keep in mind. For this example, we’ll use a conversion rate of 2% and an average order value of $150.

6. Multiply the sum of new traffic by the average conversion rate 

Add the total number of new visits from the table above, then multiply it by the average conversion rate. 

This calculation provides the estimated number of new monthly conversions from improved rankings and a greater share of the monthly search volume. 

For example, 5,260 new visits x 2% conversion rate = 105 new monthly conversions.

7. Multiply the number of new conversions by the average conversion value 

This calculation provides the estimated monthly revenue a website can expect from ranking improvements. 

For example, 105 new conversions x $150 average order value = $15,750 monthly revenue. 

Remember that SEO results are gradual, so these numbers will build incrementally over the selected timeframe.

Here’s an example of what the full process to this point could look like:

This final step provides actionable numbers based on keyword research and calculations, with some assumptions. However, if you want to refine these numbers further, see the next step.

8. Layer the amount of new traffic or conversions over existing performance

Consider the timeframe for ranking improvements when making projections. 

If you have access to first-party data, you can layer your projections on top of current performance to see how these gains will unfold over time. 

This step is crucial, especially if existing performance is trending downward. It helps ensure your projections align with current trends and avoid overpromising. 

For example, the projected gains might be enough to bring performance back to last year’s baseline if it has been in decline. 

At my agency, a data, analytics and insights team handles this using predictive modeling, but when done correctly, it might look something like this:

And with that, you’ve completed a thorough SEO projection.

SEO projection alternatives

Two alternative projection methods can provide valuable insights for situations requiring faster turnaround or limited data access:

• Opportunity analysis.
• Hybrid opportunity analysis.

Opportunity analysis

An opportunity analysis showcases the number of keywords and search volume within striking distance. 

The idea is to look into the total addressable market (TAM) and the opportunity to capitalize on it.

All it takes is pulling the keywords a website ranks for, their current rank, the MSV, and doing a little math to group them by position. Here’s what it could look like in practice:

When you have the data organized in this way, you can make callouts to show the opportunity that exists, such as: 

• “There are 1.5 million monthly searches where your website already ranks on Page 2 and beyond.”

Also, add CPC data to show what it could cost them to buy clicks for all these keywords from a paid campaign. It could be a compelling insight that resonates with their bottom line, like: 

• “$23,471 is what it would cost per click to get traffic from each of these keywords.”

Chances are your SEO campaign costs significantly less than that, and the business doesn’t have to keep paying over time to get those clicks from organic sources. Talk about real value!

This method isn’t an exact science, but it works without needing first-party data, which some businesses may be reluctant to share. 

Still, it’s helped me avoid several in-depth projection discussions, and it might work for you too.

Hybrid opportunity analysis

Taking the opportunity analysis a step further, the hybrid method introduces additional layers of financial estimation.

You can pair monthly search volume with additional data like:

• Average click-through rate.
• Average order value.
• Average conversion rate. 

This is another quick and dirty way to get real dollar values without spending much time digging. For example:

• Pull the keywords that you plan to target and get a sum of the MSV. This could be existing keywords, new keywords, or a combination of both. For this example, we’ll use 100,000 MSV.
  • This step can be quick and easy by pulling all the keywords a website ranks for in positions 1-100 from a third-party tool or long and tedious by filtering and removing irrelevant keywords for a more accurate list. Use your judgment on what you have time for and what is needed in your given situation. 
• Set an average click-through rate (CTR). Average CTRs will vary by website, industry and keyword, but most sources will give you an average between 1% and 5%. For this example, we’ll use 4%.
• Set an average order value (AOV) and average conversion rate. This can be done by digging through first party data, assuming you have access, or asking the business for these numbers. We’ll use a 3% CVR and AOV of $75.
  • Average order value = (organic revenue) / (number of organic transactions)
• Then do some math.
  • (100,000 monthly searches) x (4% CTR) = 4,000 visits
  • (4,000 visits) x (3% CVR) = 120 conversions
  • (120 conversions) x ($75 AOV) = $9,000 per month 

Practical steps for predicting SEO growth

As with any projection, it’s important to have a list of caveats ready when presenting your findings. 

While these projections are based on research and data, they involve several assumptions, such as:

• How much rankings will actually improve.
• The accuracy of CTRs.
• How long performance increases will take.
• Whether conversion rates will remain consistent.
• Whether the business will implement your recommendations.

There are no perfect solutions to some of these assumptions without advanced predictive analytics. Many factors are beyond our control, making it impossible to guarantee precise outcomes.

That said, I hope these insights equip you to have informed discussions about future performance. Now, go ahead and start making your own SEO projections!